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The conflicting methodologies of the various pollsters, from ABC to Zogby, have resulted in election forecasts that are all over the map. But the media are unswayed by the lack of certainty, and continue to shower us with more polls. Philip J. Trounstine, director of the Survey and Policy Research Insitute at San Jose State University, compiled a polling primer for the LA Times. He joins Brooke to shed some light on the way polls work, or as the case may be, don't.
Election polling will soon come to an end, and the public will once again be free to keep its opinions to itself. Pollsters will likely use the quiet to recalibrate their methodologies in preparation for the next big race. But some skeptics aren't convinced that progress lies in creating a better poll. They want to get rid of polls altogether. Bob chats with Arianna Huffington, one such skeptic, about her Partnership for a Poll Free America.
Two weeks ago, Sinclair Broadcasting Group unleashed a hornet's nest when it ordered its 62 local TV stations to air a documentary attacking John Kerry's anti-Vietnam War activities. Advertisers pulled out in the face of a boycott threat, and Sinclair's stock plummeted. This week, Sinclair appeared to backtrack, announcing it would only air segments of the film as part of a larger documentary about…political documentaries. Brooke talks to Legg Mason managing director Blair Levin about the dubious wisdom of Sinclair's politically-oriented business model.
There's more than a week left before the election, but many have cast their votes already, including Americans abroad, shut-ins, and newspapers. Editor & Publisher senior editor Joe Strupp has been tracking editorial endorsements in a daily roundup, and joins Bob to discuss the backroom process through which editorial boards arrive at their endorsements.
Another weekend, another round of endorsements. But in the end, how much influence do the editorial pages have over voters' choices on election day? The answer depends on the candidate's position on the ballot. The further down you go, the more voters depend on their trusted dailies. But where presidential hopefuls are concerned, editorial boards might just as well be shouting into the wind. Bob examines the influence of endorsements.
The Sinclair Broadcast Group has ordered its 62 local TV stations to preempt their usual programming for a commercial-free airing of "Stolen Honor," a documentary critical of John Kerry. Criticism from Kerry supporters was swift, and activists have targeted local advertisers with a boycott campaign. Sinclair may be guilty of trying to influence the election outcome, but is it doing anything illegal? Brooke sorts through the morass of election season broadcast regulations with Andrew Jay Schwartzman, executive director of the Media Access Project.
Several reliable polls suggest that for most Americans, local TV newscasts are a prime source of information about local government. But a recent study found that in the weeks leading up to the 2002 elections, about half of the local newscasts in the top 50 markets didn't air a single story on any campaign. OTM's Paul Ingles reports on why some news departments steer away from political coverage, while others break new ground in the area.
Bush and Kerry spent most of the week preparing for their first big showdown, leaving the campaign press with little to do but spin their wheels in anticipation. “Spin” being the operative word. The net effect of a week’s worth of prognosticating pundits and campaign talking points was an overall lowering of expectations, resulting in a surprising level of surprise in a lot of the post-debate analysis. Brooke reflects on the pre- and post-debate spin.
